Climate Suitability Maps for Species in GB

asNeeded

DESCRIPTION: This dataset comprises modelled data and maps for climate suitability of c. 3000+ species in GB under (a) current climate conditions (1961-90 averages) and (b) future climate scenarios (2 and 4 degree Celsius) at a 10km resolution. Distribution data for the species were downloaded from Biological Records Centre (see below) and bird data from the BTO. Distributions of each species was modelled in terms of four climate variables (measures of summer and winter temperature, seasonality and moisture availability) downloaded from the UK Met Office UKCP09 datasets. European data were available for birds (European Bird Atlas) and 354 species of plants (Atlas Flora Europaeae) so these data were used as priors within the Bayesian analysis to provide greater accuracy to the models. To assess the impacts of changing climate (measures of summer and winter temperature, seasonality and moisture availability) on the distribution of these species, we used spatially explicit Bayesian hierarchical models as described by (Beale et al. 2014). Using occupancy models combined with taxa specific estimates of observer effort, we calculated the probability of presence independently of the probability of observation. Full details are provided in Pearce-Higgins et al. (2015) and Oliver et al (2016). Climate suitability are values between 0 and 1, relating to the probability of occurrence per 10km grid cell; high values represent areas of higher climate suitability. Six types of figures have been created: (1-3) climate suitability for the current and future climate scenarios (2 (low) and 4 (medium) degree change) (4-5) difference between current and future climate scenarios (6) combined map of current suitability, 2 degree suitabilty and change between current and 2 degree suitability. We also provide the maps as GeoTIFF files for the current, 2 and 4 degree scenarios - values between 0 and 1, relating to the probability of occurrence per 10km grid cell; high values represent areas of higher climate suitability for that species. Species distribution data for the UK were acquired from the Biological Records Centre and British Trust for Ornithology. FOLDER STRUCTURE / FILE NONMENCLATURE: First level: Supporting Information Second level: Taxonomic Group [grp] Third level: PDF maps - [species]_[maptype] Forth level: GeoTiff files - [species]_[maptype Gtiff] [grp] Taxonomic group () [species] Species (English name_Latin binomial or Latin binomial) [maptype] PDF map output: "Current", "2 degree", "4 degree", "2 degree_change", "4 degree_change", "Combined" [maptype Gtiff] GeoTIFF output: "Current", "2 degree", "4 degree", "2 degree change", "4 degree change". Each zip file contains a set of pdfs and folder of GeoTIFF files. PDF maps and GeoTiffs can be extracted from the zip file using a utility such as PeaZip or 7-Zip. MAP DETAILS: Projection: The maps use an OSGB 1936 projection which is embedded in the GeoTiff files. Spatial extent: xmin - 110000 xmax - 660000 ymin - 10000 ymax - 1060000 Resolution: 10000m REFERENCES: Beale, C.M., Lennon, J.J. & Gimona, A. (2008). Opening the climate envelope reveals no macroscale associations with climate in European birds. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U. S. A., 105, 14908–12. Oliver, T.H., Smithers, R.J., Beale, C.M. & Watts, K. (2016). Are existing biodiversity conservation strategies appropriate in a changing climate? Biol. Conserv., 193, 17–26. Pearce-Higgins, J.W., Ausden, M.A., Beale, C.M., Oliver, T.H. & Crick, H.Q.P. (eds). 2015. Research on the assessment of risks & opportunities for species in England as a result of climate change. Natural England Commissioned Reports, Number 175. This report and its annexes can be found at - http://publications.naturalengland.org.uk/publication/4674414199177216?category=10003 DATASETS INCLUDED: Species distribution data was obtained from the following organisations and used in the creation of this dataset. Permission was acquired from all organisations for the release of the derived dataset under Open Government Licence (OGL): • Bees, Wasps & Ants Recording Society (BWARS) • British Arachnological Society (BAS) • British Bryological Society (BBS) • British Dragonfly Society (BDS) • British Myriapod and Isopod Group (BMIG) • Butterfly Conservation (BC) & National Moth Recording Scheme (NMRS) • Cranefly Recording Scheme • Grasshoppers and Related Insects Recording Scheme of Britain and Ireland • Ground Beetle Recording Scheme • Hoverfly Recording Scheme • Longhorn Beetle Recording Scheme • Soldier Beetles, Jewel Beetles and Glow-worms Recording Scheme • UK Ladybird Survey • Botanical Society of Britain & Ireland (BSBI) • British Trust for Ornithology (BTO)