National Coastal Erosion Risk Mapping (NCERM) - National (2024)

The National Coastal Erosion Risk Map shows projected areas at risk from erosion. The erosion risk zones are created by splitting the coastline into ‘frontages’. These frontages are defined as lengths of coast with consistent characteristics based on location, the cliff behaviour characteristics and the defence characteristics.

It is intended as an up-to-date and reliable benchmark dataset showing erosion risk extents for:

Two periods: Medium Term (up to 2055) and Long Term (up to 2105)

Two management scenarios: With Shoreline Management Plans delivered and No Future Intervention

Three climate scenarios: Present Day climate (2020), Higher Central allowance and Upper End allowance. The two allowances use sea level rise data from UKCP18 RCP8.5 70th and 95th percentiles respectively.

Defence type and SMP policies for each of the two periods described above are included. All distances are cumulative over time and given in metres.

Ground instability zones show areas of geologically complex cliffs where land has previously experienced ground movement. This zone uses the rear scarp position as the landward extent. A buffer zone identified as having the potential risk of future movement in the next 100 years is also included.

INFORMATION WARNINGS:

The data and associated information are intended for guidance only - it cannot provide details for individual properties.

The data shows areas of land likely to be at erosion risk but does not show the precise future position of the shoreline.

The information is provided as best estimates based upon historic data termed ‘present day’ and, the higher central and upper end sea level rise climate change allowances representing UKCP18 RCP8.5 sea level rise projections. Unlike the previous NCERM, data ranges based on percentiles are not provided.

The NCERM information considers the predominant risk at the coast, although flooding and erosion processes are often linked, and data on erosion of foreshore features are, in general, not included.

Some parts of the coast have complex geology causing ground instability. Unlike the previous NCERM, data on these zones of ground instability are provided. More detailed information on these areas may be available from local authorities.

This dataset succeeds National Coastal Erosion Risk Mapping (NCERM) - National (2018 - 2021) Attribution statement: © Environment Agency copyright and/or database right