South Coast Inshore and Offshore Plan Areas GVA Economic Assessment

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Estimates for GVA are made from a variety of sources. Most of these are datasets/studies which relate to the UK as whole, rather than the marine plan areas. As such these datasets have been apportioned to the plan areas using a proxy which relates to the amount of economic activity within the plan areas when compared to the UK. These sources are outlined within the accompanying report alongside a confidence rating, outlining the suitability of the source. Two analyses were run for Year 1 (2013/14) and two were run for Year 20 (2032/33) in order to show the change in economic activity after the application of assumed growth rates. For each year, one analysis displays the raw sector data, whilst the other modifies the data using a logarithmic measurement. Each sectors GVA is mapped using an existing features in the marine environment which represent their respective activities. The sources of these features are also outlined in the accompanying report. The GVA for each feature has then been overlaid on to a 10km2 grid which shows the estimated amount of aggregated GVA. There is a high degree of uncertainty surrounding the layer and the methodology used to create the layer. The layer should not be used without the methodology or limitations being consulted. Specifically, economic data for each sector is sourced from a variety of sources, each limited by their relevance to the activities covered by the sectors outlined above, their spatial extent (typically each sectors information is gathered at the UK/national scale and then proportioned to the plan areas), their temporal extent, and the different methodologies used to gather the data. The data is an estimate of economic activity for 2013/14 to 2032/33. As such, rates of growth for GVA have been estimated. Economic activity is inherently difficult to predict and therefore these estimates should be treated with caution. Again, the rational for the estimates are outlined within the accompanying report. Furthermore the spatial distribution of the GVA for each sector is also subject to a number of limitations, as it is based on the centroids of a number of other features. These are also listed in the report. All of these issues are compounded further for 2032/33 data, as these data sets rely on predicted growth rates for GVA and assume that activities do not change their spatial location beyond those already identified. The growth rates alongside their justification are outlined within the report for each sector.